KB Threat analysis 2010 P1

The question: to spend to defend or save to rebuild

This page summarizes discussion on how best to respond to the barbarian threat.

The basic issue is whether we make city guard donations to try and stay safe or save our money to rebuild.

The cost of rebuilding is approximately 110 donations.

We have currently made 24 donations, The question is will we need to make more than another 110 donations to stay safe ?

Once we decide to go the defence route, it is very hard to change because a week for now the question will be the same. Say we've made 75 donations, it will still cost 110 donations to rebuild. If we feel we can defend with 110 donations today, we'll probably feel even more so a week from now.

The risk we're taking is going all out and spending say a 100 donations and then finishing in 13th spot and having to spend another 110 donations to rebuild anyway.

The numbers

Let's take a look at the numbers from June 1: city expansion costs.xls

If you have any questions about this scenario ask me, briefly

  • I calculated total culture valeu of cities around danger boundary
  • I calculated number of donations they must have made to get danger value they have.
  • I then made 3 scenarios, calculating arsenal production at final day for each city and thencalculating danger if all ACs make 2, 3 and 4 donations in last 12 days,
  • We only start getting into trouble after 4 donations.

Analysis

  • It is no coincidence that there are many team right around the cutoff. They all have the same strategy, finish in 12th by 1 donation. Any additional donations are a waste.
  • I expect that there will be a spike of donations the last day as cities fight for that last position. Do we have the resources to be competitive ?

Recommendations

1) If people are willing to accumulate gold the most logical thing to so is wait and see and make a more informed decision a day or two before.
2) The "safe" thing to do is simply to rebuild. It is a known cost there is no risk.
3) The "risky" thing to do is defend. If we win with less than 110 donations we come out ahead. If we lose or pay more than 110 to win we come out behind. Whats the most we could come out ahead ? My guess would be that we would need to contribute 90 at leasst so 20 donations. IF we contribute 90 and lose, we lose 90,

  • bottom line is that we need o have a high likely hood of success to justify defeending.

*

Unless otherwise stated, the content of this page is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 License