Cities Progress

link to defense strategy for period 2

Here are screen shots of the state the cities were in since the start of the period

First, some nostalga for our returning players

(final day of KB before the switch to the 2010 Winter season)


Here are the screen shots I took to chart all cities' progress in COW

Oct 22, 2010:


Oct 28, 2010:


Oct 31, 2010:


Nov 4, 2010:


Nov 15, 2010:


Nov 21, 2010:
(Note: simply indicated new buildings since last image)

Nov 27, 2010:
(Note: updated buildings since last time in black, new builds since last time in red so the list of buildings to the right is up to date as of the 27th)

Dec 1, 2010:
(Note: a few cities were reported to have had buildings with a larger level than actual because they were partially built, then building moved to another building. Levels in this pic were double checked and are correct)

Safety analysis as of Dec 1 (attack in 10 days)

First, let take a look at our own safety plan:

Not illistrated in the chart is our initial jump in Buildings to 7.5. This was the arsenal. Note also that stats were not recorded every day (the dots indicate stats as of that day, the lines show the trend). These trends show that our town has been awsome at following safety guidelines. Even though clothing did not stay at 9 (the culture point value for level 3 clothing) and Gardens did not stay at zero, those that have contributed to this increase in culture points (and thus, our danger value) have stepped up with guard donations to compinsate.

Notice the last line in the chart, the one boxed in red, is my prediction as to where we will be in 10 days (the day of the attack). I expect more houses to reach our higher levels and I also encourage it in spite of the extra danger it causes. Level 8 houses give 50% chances at two resourses per day, so even in only 10 days, statisticly a person could get 5 extra resourses as opposed to the 2 or 3 extra at the lower level. That is a guard donation's worth tight there - good deal!

I suspect clothing will inch up a bit and I added a little bit to the gardens just to be safe. As of tonight, we ensured our City Building points remain steady by switching our building from Town Hall (almost done) to the Library. You will also notice in the last city picture that I included donations made by the arsenal and city walls. For us, we have 170 arsenal donations and at 5 more per day, will have 220 by the attack. To date, our citizens have made 27 private donations to the guard. So what does this all mean?

Our Danger level as of today: 22.7817

Our Danger level as projected in 10 days: 19.539

During the 1st Barbarian attack, 1/2 of the 26 cities (starting with the one with the highest Danger Value, then working in decending order) are subject to attack. However, this season, a city can "fight off" the attack if they get their Danger Level below 18. Looking at the other cities we see this:

  • As of today, we are in danger as the 9th highest in Danger Value (remember, to be safe we need to be 14th)
  • Looking at the 8 above us (World, Gold, Berg, Seid, Drach, Sonn, Raub and Stein), none have an arsenal or wall donations… but they ALL have housing levels around 60 (which is average for level 8) which means they have the means to crank out lots of personal guard donations when the time comes. That said, there are some pretty large DV's in many of these towns and they may not have an interest in defending at all.
  • Looking at the cities ahead of us, but still in danger (Wulf,Zaub, Altd, Zieg, and Munz), all but one have arsenals donating. The one that does not (Altdorf) has low over all Culture points (suggesting some gold hoarding via their lvl 2 Market and library??) and the rest have simular or slightly higher CP's. For those, our Arsenal alone will not be able to overtake these cities as their DV continues to drop along with ours.
  • If we look at Munzweiler (currently in the "required to be safe" 14th place), their Danger Value always seems to stay 2 pts ahead of us. Granted, we have only been donating to the guard recently, but even after our recent donations, we still trail by two.

Thus, I feel that we are more likely to reach a DV of 18 before overtaking 14th spot. The good news is, as originally projected, we should reach this with only a need for one guard donation each. Citizens should be sure to keep any Gold collected aside, or trade with others (or the merchants) to ensure they have the correct resources for one donation. At this time, reading here, do not make a donation. Council will discuss our optimal strategy and this will be communicated via in game email and on the home page of the wiki.

Progress after this point

Unfortunately, I was not as vigilant at taking screen shots due to a time crunch. Eventually I figured it was better t at least snap them even if I could not update the growth. Here they are:

Dec 13, 2010:

Dec 30, 2010:

Jan 16, 2011:

Feb 8, 2011:

Mar 30, 2011:

April 12, 2011 (The last day of the season):

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